Dimerco sees AI demand tightening Asia airfreight as consumer volumes soften

Dimerco Express Group’s August 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report says the freight market is splitting, with AI and semiconductor shipments keeping Taiwan and South Korea tight while softer consumer and e-commerce demand eases some other lanes. The report also says peak-season pressure is building across parts of Southeast Asia, Europe and North America, even as transpacific ocean rates fall from July highs.

Why it matters: - The August freight snapshot shows a more uneven global logistics market, with high-tech export demand supporting some lanes while consumer-driven volumes weaken others. - Shippers face tighter air capacity in several Asia markets, rising peak-season surcharges, and routing risks that can keep total transport costs elevated even when base rates soften.

What happened: - Dimerco Express Group released its August 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report on August 4, 2026. - The report says global manufacturing continued to expand for an 11th month, with the Global Manufacturing PMI at 52.2 in June. - Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, India and parts of Europe and North America are facing different levels of air and ocean freight pressure.

The details: - The Global Manufacturing PMI slipped from 52.7 in May, but remained in expansion territory. - Manufacturing stayed strong in Taiwan at 55.2, Japan at 54.8, India at 54.2 and the United States at 53.9. - Taiwan airfreight capacity is tight to Asia and both US coasts, with rising rates driven by AI servers, semiconductors and other high-tech exports. - Taiwan-bound Europe capacity is more balanced, with stable rates. - South Korea is also tight on airfreight to Asia and the US, with rates rising across major corridors. - Dimerco says Asia-US load factors in South Korea have reached about 90%. - AI and semiconductor shipments have replaced e-commerce as the main capacity driver on those lanes. - Greater China is softer overall, with North China and Hong Kong to the US showing soft capacity and falling rates. - South China has ample capacity and stable pricing. - Ocean rates from China to the US are trending lower as the earlier tariff-driven cargo rush fades. - Thailand remains one of the region’s tightest airfreight markets, with capacity tight and rates rising across Asia, Europe and both US coasts. - Singapore has backlog conditions to Europe. - Malaysia’s KUL and PEN gateways remain tight on Asia and US-bound lanes. - India is also under pressure, with tight air capacity to Europe and North America. - Australia is an outlier, with soft capacity and stable air rates on major lanes. - Ocean freight from Southeast Asia is strengthening as peak-season demand builds. - Malaysia, Indonesia and India are seeing tight ocean capacity and higher rates on several Europe and North America routes. - Carriers are adding peak-season surcharges and general rate increases as vessel utilization rises. - The report says the frontloading wave ahead of US tariff deadlines has passed its peak. - Transpacific ocean rates are easing from July highs, even as retail replenishment keeps vessel space tight at major gateways. - Dimerco says fuel expenses, potential Panama Canal surcharges and Middle East routing risks may keep total shipping costs from falling as fast as base freight rates. - European airfreight to Asia is soft and rates are stable after changes to the EU’s de minimis exemption. - Air rates from the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom to both US coasts are rising. - Transatlantic ocean capacity is at backlog levels from those three European markets, with rising rates and higher rollover risk tied to vessel bunching in Rotterdam and infrastructure constraints in Hamburg. - Chicago-to-Asia and Chicago-to-Europe airfreight is at backlog levels. - New York-to-Europe air capacity is classified as serious. - Los Angeles ocean capacity to Asia and Europe is at backlog levels. - New York-to-Europe ocean space is also at serious levels. - Southern Mexico remains a pressure point, with ocean capacity to Europe and the US East Coast classified as serious and rates rising. - Dimerco recommends early booking on air lanes from Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. - For ocean freight, Dimerco advises booking one to two weeks ahead for intra-Asia moves and two to three weeks ahead for Europe and North America. - China-Europe rail remains an alternative, with transit times of 16 to 27 days. - Chengdu-Tilburg rail space is critically limited, while Chongqing has more flexible spot opportunities. - Shippers should prepare for monsoon and typhoon disruption, congestion at regional hubs and continued volatility in fuel and war-risk surcharges. - Dimerco says the company was founded in Taiwan in 1971, is listed on the Taipei Exchange under 5609 and operates more than 300 service locations.

Between the lines: - The freight market is no longer moving in one direction. AI-related exports are propping up Northeast Asia while softer retail and e-commerce demand removes some of the pressure that had supported other trade lanes. - Lower spot rates do not automatically translate into lower landed costs. Surcharges, congestion and rerouting risks can keep all-in pricing sticky. - The divergence between air and ocean signals different bottlenecks across regions, which makes lane-by-lane planning more important than broad market assumptions.

What's next: - Peak-season pressure is likely to continue across selected Asia, Europe and North America lanes. - Shippers are expected to lean more heavily on early booking, alternate gateways and rail options where capacity is constrained. - Total freight costs may stay uneven as base rates soften but surcharges and routing risks remain elevated. - Dimerco’s report suggests the next moves will be shaped by AI export demand, seasonal retail replenishment and disruption risks from weather and infrastructure constraints.

The bottom line: - Dimerco’s August report points to a fragmented freight market: AI and semiconductor demand are keeping key Asia lanes tight, but softer consumer cargo and falling transpacific rates are easing some pressure elsewhere.